Party Consensus – War with Russia

The following is a timely and important article from Peter Lux – the original can be read at:

https://www.plux.co.uk/party-consensus-war-with-russia/

Party Consensus – War With Russia

Although not explicitly stated, all the major political parties agree with one thing – we are going to war with Russia.
The Conservatives, Liberal Democrats1, Labour2 and even The Green Party3 have similar ‘policies’: more arms for Ukraine, no negotiations and further escalation.
Since all parties agree this will not be an election issue, despite being one of the biggest threats that this country has faced for many years.

As I pointed out in a previous post, the increasing escalation by NATO countries, including the UK is likely to lead to further escalation by Russia, including attacks on UK military sites. Despite the many non-violent routes that could be taken to de-escalate the situation4, none of the parties have any plan to avoid the UK getting more involved in the conflict, eventually leading to direct war with Russia.
As I pointed out before Ukraine cannot win without further escalation, including deployment of troops from NATO countries.

The political parties have no real plan about how to even maintain the current level of support for the Ukrainian regime, let alone further escalation.
Even outside the mainstream political parties there seems to be little debate about Ukraine even amongst ‘peace activists’. As tens of thousands of Ukrainians and Russians are killed or seriously injured every month and the threat of the conflict spreading this is subject that urgently needs addressing.
There is one thing worse than planning a war with Russia, and that is mindlessly sleepwalking into it.

People In Europe and USA Want A Negotiated Peace
Despite the rhetoric from the media and political parties, an overwhelming majority of people in Europe and the USA want peace negotiations. Although the survey5 is somewhat strange since people were allowed to give two answers and therefore the totals add up to more than 100%, it does show the desire for proper negotiations.
Outside the Western ‘bubble’ the call for negotiations is undoubtedly stronger. Few countries outside the West have imposed sanctions against Russia.

A so-called Peace Conference is being organized in Switzerland on 15 and 16 June, but Russia has not been invited. Although Zelenskyy has accused Russia and China of trying to sabotage the conference6 even President Biden is not attending since he has a fund-raiser with George Cluney and Julia Roberts7.
Brazil and China have called presented a joint proposal for peace negotiations with the participation of Russia and Ukraine8 but there seems to be little reaction from Western powers. The proposal is very similar to that proposed by China in 20239 which likewise received little response.

Military expenditure (% of GDP) – United Kingdom

Get Serious!
Despite the strong words coming from Rishi Sunak, Keir Starmer and Caroline Lucas and none of them willing to consider peace negotiations there are no real proposals to prepare for conflict with Russia. Both the Conservative and Labour parties have promised to increase military spending to 2.5% of GDP by 2030 or “when economic conditions allow”11. This compares to the 6-7% the UK spent in the 1960s.
Shortages in personnel and equipment means that the UK is totally unprepared for a high intensity war12, and so even increasing to Cold War levels of military expenditure will probably not be sufficient. Russia currently manufactures seven times as much ammunition as Western arms makers13.
Is the Green Party, Conservatives or Labour willing to spend the tens of billions of pounds on preparing for the war with Russia they are heading for?

Who Will Be Willing To Fight?
Although the Conservatives have proposed to bring back National Service14 there seems to be little willingness to serve in the armed forces.
Nearly one third of 18-40 year olds would refuse to serve in the armed forces even if the UK was under imminent threat of invasion, and only 11% would volunteer15.
The reasons for this lack of willingness to serve in the armed forces is not clear. It could be related to the loss of trust in government16. This may be particularly true when it comes to armed forces, where the recent interventions in Afghanistan, Iraq, Libya and Syria have failed to fulfil their stated aims.

Industrial Production
There are other elements of the UK’s industrial base which require urgent attention, such as the steel industry and the capacity to produce ammunition.17
As the UK and other Western countries have moved from a manufacturing to a service economy, they no longer have the basis on which to participate in a long term war of attrition. For example, the UK’s steel industry has suffered decades of decline18. Unlike Russia which sees its industrial production as an essential strategic asset, countries such as the UK have outsourced its manufacturing capacity to the lowest bidder such as China and India.

The Nuclear Option
The UK does have its ‘independent nuclear deterrent‘ – the Trident nuclear missile system.
The UK has been involved in a proxy war with Russia, which now includes hitting targets within Russia itself with UK supplied weapons. Russia, as well as many other commentators, believe that the UK military have direct involvement in programming and targetting these weapons19. Russia has already called in the envoys in Moscow and stated that UK military sites20 may be targetted as a result of this.
The first point about this is that the UK has not been deterred from crossing Russian red lines by the fact that Russia has a far larger nuclear weapons arsenal.
The second point is that Russia has repeatedly stated that it will not refrain from attacking NATO countries if it thinks it is necessary because it is worried that it may lead to direct Russia-NATO conflict with the possibility of this escalating to nuclear war. In fact, it has publicized the fact that it is carrying out exercises for the use of nuclear weapons21. Russia is also overhauling its old nuclear shelters22 and building portable nuclear bomb shelters23.
Nuclear deterrence has already failed.

Plan For Peace Not War
While the majority of the people in the world want a negotiated settlement, Western leaders are unwilling to enter peace negotiations with Russia unless it retreats to pre-2014 borders. After tens, if not hundreds of thousands of lives lost on the Russian side and continuing security concerns this is not going to happen. Sanctions are not working, Putin is not going to get overthrown, the Russians are not running out of weapons or soldiers, they will not “go away and shut up”24, Ukraine has already lost – this war is now between NATO and Russia with the Ukrainians supplying the dead bodies.
People spout “Putin cannot be allowed to win”, “Putin is an evil dictator”… Even if this is true it does not have any relevance to how you stop the killing and end this conflict. Are people naive enough to think that ‘the good guys’ always wins?

We stand with Ukraine; Liberal Democrats; 24 February 2023 (https://www.libdems.org.uk/news/article/we-stand-with-ukraine-2023) ↩︎
Labour pledges ‘iron-clad’ support for Ukraine against Putin; BBC; 13 May 2024 (https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-69004980) ↩︎
Is The ‘Green’ Party For Or Against Nuclear Weapons?; Peter Lux ;20 May 2024 (https://www.plux.co.uk/is-the-green-party-for-or-against-nuclear-weapons/) ↩︎
Is The ‘Green’ Party For Or Against Nuclear Weapons?; Peter Lux; 20 May 2024 (https://www.plux.co.uk/is-the-green-party-for-or-against-nuclear-weapons/#Plan-For-Peace-Not-War) ↩︎
The New Atlanticism: Where Americans and Western Europeans Agree and Disagree; Institute for Global Affairs; June 2024 (https://instituteforglobalaffairs.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/06/IGA-Modeling-Democracy-2024-The-New-Atlanticism.pdf) ↩︎
Zelensky accuses China of helping Russia sabotage Ukraine peace summit; The Independent; 3 June 2024 (https://www.independent.co.uk/asia/southeast-asia/zelensky-putin-philippines-singapore-peace-summit-b2555487.html) ↩︎
Biden Set to Skip Ukraine Peace Summit for Hollywood Fundraiser; Bloomberg; 23 May 2024 (https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-05-23/clooney-kimmel-fundraiser-pulls-biden-away-from-a-meeting-on-ukraine-peace-plan) ↩︎
Brazil and China present joint proposal for peace negotiations with the participation of Russia and Ukraine; Brazillian Government; May 2024 (https://www.gov.br/planalto/en/latest-news/2024/05/brazil-and-china-present-joint-proposal-for-peace-negotiations-with-the-participation-of-russia-and-ukraine) ↩︎
China’s Position on the Political Settlement of the Ukraine Crisis; Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the People’s Republic of China; 24 February 2023 (https://www.fmprc.gov.cn/mfa_eng/zxxx_662805/202302/t20230224_11030713.html) ↩︎
Military expenditure (% of GDP) – United Kingdom; World Bank (https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/MS.MIL.XPND.GD.ZS?locations=GB) ↩︎
Rishi Sunak vows to boost UK defence spending to 2.5% of GDP by 2030; BBC; 24 April 2024 (https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-68880171) ↩︎
UK armed forces not ready for high-intensity war, MPs warn; BBC; 4 February 2024 (https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-68181275) ↩︎
Russian manufacturers are making up to 7 times as much ammunition as Western arms makers, Estonian defense official says; 14 September 2023 (https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-ammunition-manufacturing-ukraine-west-officials-2023-9) ↩︎
Conservatives want to bring back compulsory national service; BBC; 25 May 2024 (https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cpddxy9r4mdo) ↩︎
More than a third of under-40s would refuse conscription in the event of a world war; YouGov; 26 January 2024 (https://yougov.co.uk/politics/articles/48473-more-than-a-third-of-under-40s-would-refuse-conscription-in-the-event-of-a-world-war) ↩︎
GDWe: A spotlight on democratic wellbeing; Carnegie UK; 2022 (https://carnegieuktrust.org.uk/publications/gdwe-a-spotlight-on-democratic-wellbeing/) ↩︎
The failed Trident test highlights an imbalance in UK defence strategy; Chatham House; 26 February 2024 (https://www.chathamhouse.org/2024/02/second-failed-trident-test-time-expand-and-invest-britains-conventional-capabilities) ↩︎
UK Steel: Decades of decline; House of Commons Library; 18 December 2017 (https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/uk-steel-decades-of-decline/) ↩︎
Answers to media questions following the visit to Uzbekistan; Kremlin; 28 May 2024 (http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/transcripts/74132) ↩︎
‘Dangerous’: Russia Summons French And British Envoys Over Remarks On Ukraine War; News 18; 7 May 2024 (https://www.news18.com/world/russia-kremlin-summons-french-british-ambassadors-emmanuel-macron-david-cameron-ukraine-war-remarks-8880294.html) ↩︎
Putin orders tactical nuclear weapons drills in response to Western ‘threats’; CNN; 7 May 2024 (https://edition.cnn.com/2024/05/06/europe/putin-tactical-nuclear-weapon-drill-russia-ukraine-intl/index.html) ↩︎
Amid Ukraine War, Kremlin Orders Nationwide Bomb Shelter Overhaul; The Moscow Times; 15 February 2023 (https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2023/02/06/amid-ukraine-war-kremlin-orders-nationwide-bomb-shelter-overhaul-a80085) ↩︎
Russia to start building mobile shelters to protect against nuclear attack; Ukraine News; 1 June 2024 (https://ukranews.com/en/news/1010375-russia-to-start-building-mobile-shelters-to-protect-against-nuclear-attack) ↩︎
UK defence secretary tells Russia ‘go away and shut up’; BBC; 15 March 2018 (https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-43405686) ↩︎